Harald will continue to build on his past work on narrative storylines and modeling of scenarios; equity in relation to the global stock-take and fairness and ambition in NDCs; transparency and MRV; and renewable energy. His transdisciplinary research has informed energy and climate policy at the national level and multi-lateral negotiations.
Harald has published extensively and is joint Editor-in-Chief of the journal Climate Policy. While his primary field is mitigation, he has extensive knowledge of adaptation — understanding climate action in the context of poverty, inequality and sustainable development.
Email address: Harald. In German libraries KVK. I need help. More details Report error. Extent: graph. Saved in favorites. Similar items by subject. Similar items by person. A service of the. Sitemap Contact us Imprint Privacy. Winkler, Bernhard. Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Article in journal. The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Czech National Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
Although we speak about inflation forecasts, we assume in this paper that the central bank produces forecasts for other important economic variables not just inflation , such as economic growth and interest and exchange rate paths. When we speak about publishing inflation forecasts, we again assume that the central bank publishes forecasts of other variables not just inflation. It is beyond the scope of this paper to go into more detail and discuss which parts of the forecast should be published.
Specifically, they evaluate the pros and cons of publishing the interest rate path. Policy meetings currently take place on the last Thursday of each month. Starting in mid, the press conferences have been recorded and. The board members have agreed not to give interviews in the one week preceding monetary policy meetings. A hard copy of the report is sent to various target groups, such as journalists, analysts, economists in academia, and members of parliament.
The governor presents the CNB inflation report to Parliament twice a year. However, the inflation forecasts deviated significantly from the target in about one-half of cases for the one-year forecast horizon and in one-quarter of cases for the two-year forecast horizon.
It could happen, of course, that the individual Board members create a homogeneous group with an identical set of preferences. We see this as a highly hypothetical counterfactual example.
It shows the percentage of the votes that were in the minority with respect to the actual decision taken the percentage of those present. For example, if six votes supported unchanged rates and one vote supported an increase decrease , the uncertainty indicator takes a value of 14 percent percent. If fewer members were present, we consider the uncertainty indicator significant if the minority is more than 14 percent of the votes.
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